Green Commandos 2–1 Kenya Police: Result & Stats

Green Commandos

FT

2 – 1

Kenya Police

10/3/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Green Commandos35%

×Draw27%

Kenya Police38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green CommandosExpected goals in this matchKenya Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.30

Green Commandos

1.23

Kenya Police

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.39

creates per match

0.94

1.67

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Green Commandos

1.39

Kenya Police

0.94

allows per match

Green Commandos

1.67

Kenya Police

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Commandos+0.00on par

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Commandos ↓

Kenya Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Green Commandos or draw

62%

Green Commandos or Kenya Police

73%

Draw or Kenya Police

65%

Winning margin

Green Commandos wins by 2+

15%

Kenya Police wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Green Commandos 1+ goals

71%

Green Commandos 2+ goals

35%

Green Commandos 3+ goals

13%

Kenya Police 1+ goals

73%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

37%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Green Commandos (draw refunded)

48%

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Commandos attack 1.39 + Kenya Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kenya Police attack 0.94 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Green Commandos scores more

35%

level

27%

Kenya Police scores more

38%

Kenya Police at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff