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Green Commandos vs KCB — Super League 2018

Green Commandos
Green Commandos
FT
0 – 1
KCB
KCB
5/6/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Green Commandos27%
×Draw27%
KCB46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Commandos
0.99
KCB
1.40

KCB creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Green Commandos
1.39
KCB
1.13

allows per match

Green Commandos
1.67
KCB
0.60

finishing

Green Commandos+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Commandos ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Green Commandos or draw
54%
Green Commandos or KCB
73%
Draw or KCB
73%

Winning margin

Green Commandos wins by 2+
10%
KCB wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Green Commandos 1+ goals
63%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
26%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
8%
KCB 1+ goals
75%
KCB 2+ goals
41%
KCB 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Green Commandos (draw refunded)
36%
KCB (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

KCB away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Commandos attack 1.39 + KCB defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

KCB attack 1.13 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Green Commandos scores more
27%
level
27%
KCB scores more
46%

KCB at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Green Commandos 0–1 KCB

KCB beat Green Commandos 1-0 in Super League on May 6, 2018.