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Green Buffaloes vs Zanaco — Super League 2019

Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zanaco
Zanaco
11/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Green Buffaloes43%
×Draw30%
Zanaco27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Buffaloes
1.20
Zanaco
0.89

Green Buffaloes creates 35% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Green Buffaloes
1.26
Zanaco
0.85

allows per match

Green Buffaloes
0.93
Zanaco
1.14

finishing

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par
Zanaco+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Buffaloes ↓

Zanaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Green Buffaloes or draw
73%
Green Buffaloes or Zanaco
70%
Draw or Zanaco
57%

Winning margin

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
19%
Zanaco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
70%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
34%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
12%
Zanaco 1+ goals
59%
Zanaco 2+ goals
22%
Zanaco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
61%
Zanaco (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

Zanaco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.14 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + Zanaco defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Zanaco attack 0.85 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Green Buffaloes scores more
43%
level
30%
Zanaco scores more
27%

Green Buffaloes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Green Buffaloes 1–0 Zanaco

Green Buffaloes beat Zanaco 1-0 in Super League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.