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Green Buffaloes vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
1/13/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Green Buffaloes48%
×Draw28%
Prison Leopards24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Buffaloes
1.33
Prison Leopards
0.85

Green Buffaloes creates 56% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 95 away

creates per match

Green Buffaloes
1.26
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

Green Buffaloes
0.93
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Buffaloes ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Green Buffaloes or draw
76%
Green Buffaloes or Prison Leopards
72%
Draw or Prison Leopards
52%

Winning margin

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
23%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
74%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
38%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
15%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
57%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
21%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
67%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Green Buffaloes scores more
48%
level
28%
Prison Leopards scores more
24%

Green Buffaloes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Buffaloes vs Prison Leopards

Green Buffaloes and Prison Leopards drew 1-1 in Super League on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.