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Green Buffaloes vs Mutondo Stars — Super League 2019

Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mutondo Stars
Mutondo Stars
11/26/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Green Buffaloes45%
×Draw31%
Mutondo Stars23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Buffaloes
1.14
Mutondo Stars
0.73

Green Buffaloes creates 56% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 51 away

creates per match

Green Buffaloes
1.26
Mutondo Stars
0.53

allows per match

Green Buffaloes
0.93
Mutondo Stars
1.02

finishing

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par
Mutondo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Buffaloes ↓

Mutondo Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Green Buffaloes or draw
77%
Green Buffaloes or Mutondo Stars
69%
Draw or Mutondo Stars
55%

Winning margin

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
19%
Mutondo Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
68%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
32%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
11%
Mutondo Stars 1+ goals
52%
Mutondo Stars 2+ goals
17%
Mutondo Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
66%
Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

Mutondo Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + Mutondo Stars defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mutondo Stars attack 0.53 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Green Buffaloes scores more
45%
level
31%
Mutondo Stars scores more
23%

Green Buffaloes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Buffaloes vs Mutondo Stars

Green Buffaloes and Mutondo Stars drew 0-0 in Super League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.