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Green Buffaloes vs Konkola Blades — Super League 2019

Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Konkola Blades
Konkola Blades
2/24/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Green Buffaloes45%
×Draw30%
Konkola Blades25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Buffaloes
1.19
Konkola Blades
0.81

Green Buffaloes creates 47% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 50 away

creates per match

Green Buffaloes
1.26
Konkola Blades
0.68

allows per match

Green Buffaloes
0.93
Konkola Blades
1.12

finishing

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par
Konkola Blades+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Buffaloes ↓

Konkola Blades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Green Buffaloes or draw
75%
Green Buffaloes or Konkola Blades
70%
Draw or Konkola Blades
55%

Winning margin

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
20%
Konkola Blades wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
70%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
33%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
12%
Konkola Blades 1+ goals
56%
Konkola Blades 2+ goals
19%
Konkola Blades 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
64%
Konkola Blades (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

Konkola Blades away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + Konkola Blades defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Konkola Blades attack 0.68 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Green Buffaloes scores more
45%
level
30%
Konkola Blades scores more
25%

Green Buffaloes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Green Buffaloes 4–2 Konkola Blades

Green Buffaloes beat Konkola Blades 4-2 in Super League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.