Green Buffaloes vs Kabwe Warriors — Super League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 111+ matches
Green Buffaloes39%
Kabwe Warriors30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Green Buffaloes creates 18% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 111 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Green Buffaloes ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches
Kabwe Warriors away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 111 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09
Kabwe Warriors attack 0.90 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Green Buffaloes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Power Dynamos
Red Arrows
Man Utd Zambia AcademyKabwe Warriors
Nchanga Rangers
Green Eagles
Zanaco
Mufulira Wanderers
ZESCO United
Konkola Blades
Kansanshi Dynamos
NkanaGreen Buffaloes
Nkwazi
NAPSA Stars
Mutondo Stars
Prison Leopards
MinesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Green Buffaloes host Kabwe Warriors on Sunday, 23 February 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Super League 2019/2020 season.
Super League: Green Buffaloes 1–0 Kabwe Warriors
Green Buffaloes beat Kabwe Warriors 1-0 in Super League on February 23, 2025.
The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.