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Green Boys vs Wiltz — Cup 2020

Green Boys
Green Boys
FT
0 – 8
Wiltz
Wiltz
10/18/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain Am Duerf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Green Boys8%
×Draw10%
Wiltz81%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Boys
1.39
Wiltz
4.17

Wiltz creates 200% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Green Boys
1.60
Wiltz
3.73

allows per match

Green Boys
4.60
Wiltz
1.18

finishing

Green Boys+0.00on par
Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Boys ↓

Wiltz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Green Boys or draw
19%
Green Boys or Wiltz
90%
Draw or Wiltz
92%

Winning margin

Green Boys wins by 2+
3%
Wiltz wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Green Boys 1+ goals
75%
Green Boys 2+ goals
40%
Green Boys 3+ goals
16%
Wiltz 1+ goals
98%
Wiltz 2+ goals
91%
Wiltz 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

Green Boys (draw refunded)
9%
Wiltz (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Boys at home — creates 1.60, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

Wiltz away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Boys attack 1.60 + Wiltz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Wiltz attack 3.73 + Green Boys defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Green Boys scores more
8%
level
10%
Wiltz scores more
81%

Wiltz at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Wiltz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Boys vs Wiltz

Wiltz beat Green Boys 8-0 in Cup on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain Am Duerf in Harlange.