Green Boys 3–0 Obercorn: Result & Stats | Cup

Green Boys

3 – 0

Obercorn

9/11/2022

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain Am Duerf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Green Boys8%

×Draw11%

Obercorn81%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green BoysExpected goals in this matchObercorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

3.67

Green Boys

1.18

Obercorn

3.67

Obercorn creates 211% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

2.75

4.60

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Green Boys

1.60

Obercorn

2.75

allows per match

Green Boys

4.60

Obercorn

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Boys+0.00on par

Obercorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Boys ↓

Obercorn →

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Green Boys or draw

19%

Green Boys or Obercorn

89%

Draw or Obercorn

92%

Winning margin

Green Boys wins by 2+

Obercorn wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Green Boys 1+ goals

69%

Green Boys 2+ goals

33%

Green Boys 3+ goals

12%

Obercorn 1+ goals

97%

Obercorn 2+ goals

87%

Obercorn 3+ goals

68%

Draw no bet

Green Boys (draw refunded)

Obercorn (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Green Boys at home — creates 1.60, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

Obercorn away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Green Boys attack 1.60 + Obercorn defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Obercorn attack 2.75 + Green Boys defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 81%?"

Green Boys scores more

level

11%

Obercorn scores more

81%

Obercorn at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Obercorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff