Green Boys 3–5 Jeunesse Useldange: Result & Stats

Green Boys

3 – 5

Jeunesse Useldange

9/11/2021

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain Am Duerf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Green Boys14%

×Draw13%

Jeunesse Useldange73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green BoysExpected goals in this matchJeunesse Useldange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

3.96

Green Boys

1.80

Jeunesse Useldange

3.96

Jeunesse Useldange creates 120% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

3.33

4.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Green Boys

1.60

Jeunesse Useldange

3.33

allows per match

Green Boys

4.60

Jeunesse Useldange

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Boys+0.00on par

Jeunesse Useldange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Boys ↓

Jeunesse Useldange →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–34%

0–44%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–34%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Green Boys or draw

27%

Green Boys or Jeunesse Useldange

87%

Draw or Jeunesse Useldange

86%

Winning margin

Green Boys wins by 2+

Jeunesse Useldange wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Green Boys 1+ goals

83%

Green Boys 2+ goals

54%

Green Boys 3+ goals

27%

Jeunesse Useldange 1+ goals

98%

Jeunesse Useldange 2+ goals

89%

Jeunesse Useldange 3+ goals

73%

Draw no bet

Green Boys (draw refunded)

16%

Jeunesse Useldange (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Green Boys at home — creates 1.60, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

Jeunesse Useldange away — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Green Boys attack 1.60 + Jeunesse Useldange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Jeunesse Useldange attack 3.33 + Green Boys defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 3.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Green Boys scores more

14%

level

13%

Jeunesse Useldange scores more

73%

Jeunesse Useldange at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Jeunesse Useldange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff