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Greece vs Slovenia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Greece
Greece
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovenia
Slovenia
11/18/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 6Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Greece48%
×Draw31%
Slovenia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greece
1.16
Slovenia
0.66

Greece creates 76% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Greece
1.31
Slovenia
0.85

allows per match

Greece
0.46
Slovenia
1.00

finishing

Greece+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Greece or draw
79%
Greece or Slovenia
69%
Draw or Slovenia
52%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+
21%
Slovenia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals
69%
Greece 2+ goals
32%
Greece 3+ goals
11%
Slovenia 1+ goals
48%
Slovenia 2+ goals
14%
Slovenia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)
70%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.31 + Slovenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Slovenia attack 0.85 + Greece defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Greece scores more
48%
level
31%
Slovenia scores more
21%

Greece at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Jan OblakSloveniaSlovenia · G
8.5

Match Events

6'
Damjan Bohar
21'
Jasmin Kurtić
46'
Vangelis Pavlidis← Giorgos Giakoumakis
56'
Georgios Tzavellas
56'
Josip Iličić
67'
Christos Tzolis← Zeca
67'
Benjamin Verbič← Damjan Bohar
77'
Amedej Vetrih← Jaka Bijol
77'
Andraž Šporar← Haris Vučkić
79'
Giorgos Masouras← Georgios Tzavellas
81'
Amedej Vetrih
85'
Anastasios Bakasetas
88'
Dimitris Limnios
88'
Jure Balkovec
90+4'
Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
90'
Pantelis Hatzidiakos
90'
Giorgos Kyriakopoulos← Konstantinos Tsimikas
90'
Kenan Bajrić← Josip Iličić
90'
Nejc Skubic← Sandi Lovrić

Possession

62%Greece

Shots

15Greece

Pass accuracy

53%Greece

Statistics

GreeceSlovenia
Overview
62%Possession38%
15Total Shots5
7Corners4
18Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots5
7On Target1
4Off Target2
4Blocked2
9Inside Box1
6Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
541Total Passes318
448Accurate Passes233
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
18Fouls15
4Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
4Offsides1

UEFA Nations League: Greece 0–0 Slovenia

Greece and Slovenia drew 0-0 in UEFA Nations League on November 18, 2020.

Greece controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium in Athens.