Greece 0–1 Scotland: Result & Stats

Greece

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Scotland

S. McTominay 33' (pen)

3/20/2025

UEFA Nations League · Play-offs A/BGeorgios Karaiskakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Greece46%

×Draw29%

Scotland25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GreeceExpected goals in this matchScotland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.84

Greece

1.27

Scotland

0.84

Greece creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.31

creates per match

1.22

0.46

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Greece

1.31

Scotland

1.22

allows per match

Greece

0.46

Scotland

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece+0.00on par

Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Scotland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Greece or draw

75%

Greece or Scotland

71%

Draw or Scotland

54%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+

21%

Scotland wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals

72%

Greece 2+ goals

36%

Greece 3+ goals

14%

Scotland 1+ goals

57%

Scotland 2+ goals

21%

Scotland 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)

65%

Scotland (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Scotland away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.31 + Scotland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Scotland attack 1.22 + Greece defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Greece scores more

46%

level

29%

Scotland scores more

25%

Greece at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. McTominay

Scotland · M

8.3

Match Events

33'

S. McTominayPenalty

45+2'

Lewis Ferguson

46'

K. Karetsas← G. Masouras

64'

Manolis Siopis

72'

C. Zafeiris← C. Tzolis

72'

V. Pavlidis← G. Konstantelias

72'

D. Pelkas← P. Mantalos

75'

G. Hirst← C. Adams

76'

K. Tierney← K. McLean

81'

T. Fountas← F. Ioannidis

86'

Taxiarchis FountasPenalty cancelled

89'

R. Porteous← A. Ralston

90+5'

M. Johnston← B. Gilmour

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GreeceScotland

Overview

58%Possession42%

24Total Shots8

8Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots8

1On Target2

15Off Target4

8Blocked2

16Inside Box7

8Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

571Total Passes433

510Accurate Passes364

89%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0