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Greece vs Rep. Of Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Greece
Greece
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
P. Mantalos 90+1'
T. Bakasetas 48'
10/13/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 4Georgios Karaiskakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Greece61%
×Draw25%
Rep. Of Ireland14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greece
1.56
Rep. Of Ireland
0.59

Greece creates 164% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Greece
1.31
Rep. Of Ireland
0.73

allows per match

Greece
0.46
Rep. Of Ireland
1.82

finishing

Greece+0.00on par
Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Greece or draw
86%
Greece or Rep. Of Ireland
75%
Draw or Rep. Of Ireland
39%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+
33%
Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals
79%
Greece 2+ goals
46%
Greece 3+ goals
21%
Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
45%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
12%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)
81%
Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.31 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Greece defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Greece scores more
61%
level
25%
Rep. Of Ireland scores more
14%

Greece at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
T. BakasetasGreeceGreece · M
8.5

Match Events

45+1'
Dimitrios Giannoulis
48'
T. Bakasetas↳ C. Tzolis
57'
J. Taylor← E. Ferguson
57'
F. Ebosele← C. Ogbene
65'
D. Pelkas← G. Masouras
71'
Dimitrios Kourbelis
72'
T. Douvikas← V. Pavlidis
72'
C. Zafeiris← T. Bakasetas
72'
J. Molumby← J. Knight
72'
M. Johnston← S. Szmodics
82'
P. Mantalos← C. Tzolis
82'
K. Tsimikas← D. Kourbelis
82'
K. McAteer← D. OShea
90+1'
P. Mantalos

Possession

55%Greece

Shots

21Greece

Pass accuracy

51%Greece

Statistics

GreeceRep.
Overview
55%Possession45%
21Total Shots8
5Corners5
14Fouls17
Shots
21Total Shots8
7On Target2
8Off Target4
6Blocked2
15Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
475Total Passes380
393Accurate Passes303
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls17
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Greece vs Rep. Of Ireland

Greece beat Rep. Of Ireland 2-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 13, 2024.

Goals: T. Bakasetas (48'), P. Mantalos (90+1').

Greece controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Georgios Karaiskakis in Piraeus.