Greece 0–0 Lithuania: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Greece

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lithuania

3/27/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1OPAP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Greece62%

×Draw23%

Lithuania15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GreeceExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.69

Greece

1.71

Lithuania

0.69

Greece creates 148% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

0.62

0.75

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Greece

1.50

Lithuania

0.62

allows per match

Greece

0.75

Lithuania

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Greece or draw

85%

Greece or Lithuania

77%

Draw or Lithuania

38%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+

35%

Lithuania wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals

82%

Greece 2+ goals

51%

Greece 3+ goals

24%

Lithuania 1+ goals

50%

Lithuania 2+ goals

15%

Lithuania 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)

81%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.50 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Greece defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Greece scores more

62%

level

23%

Lithuania scores more

15%

Greece at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Dimitrios Giannoulis← Konstantinos Tsimikas

46'

Gratas Sirgėdas← Daniel Romanovskij

46'

Rolandas Baravykas← Markas Beneta

46'

Karolis Laukžemis← Gytis Paulauskas

46'

Vilius Armalas← Edvinas Girdvainis

60'

Klaudijus Upstas← Fedor Černych

69'

Giannis Konstantelias← Anastasios Bakasetas

69'

Giorgos Giakoumakis← Vangelis Pavlidis

72'

Klaudijus Upstas

79'

Domantas Šimkus← Vykintas Slivka

80'

Giannis Papanikolaou← Giorgos Masouras

80'

Dimitris Limnios← Kostas Fortounis

85'

Gratas Sirgėdas

86'

Gvidas Gineitis

90'

Giannis Papanikolaou

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GreeceLithuania

Overview

66%Possession34%

25Total Shots3

13Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots3

5On Target2

8Off Target1

12Blocked0

Passing

66%Possession34%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0