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Greece vs Bosnia & Herzegovina — Euro Championship 2024

Greece
Greece
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
A. Kovačević 88' (OG)
V. Pavlidis 30'
A. Gojak 35'
10/15/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Greece33%
×Draw25%
Bosnia & Herzegovina42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greece
1.33
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.54

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Greece
1.17
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.25

allows per match

Greece
1.83
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.50

finishing

Greece+0.00on par
Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Greece or draw
58%
Greece or Bosnia & Herzegovina
75%
Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina
67%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+
14%
Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals
74%
Greece 2+ goals
38%
Greece 3+ goals
15%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals
79%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals
45%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)
44%
Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.17 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.25 + Greece defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Greece scores more
33%
level
25%
Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more
42%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
A. BakasetasGreeceGreece · M
7.8

Match Events

30'
V. Pavlidis↳ P. Mandalos
32'
Gojko Cimirot
35'
A. Gojak↳ S. Kolašinac
46'
M. Jajalo← G. Cimirot
60'
G. Masouras← P. Mandalos
63'
H. Duljević← E. Sarić
70'
E. Koulouris← V. Pavlidis
71'
R. Bajić← A. Hodžić
76'
Zoran Kvržić
84'
I. Fetfatzidis← D. Limnios
88'
A. KovačevićOwn goal
90'
Michalis Bakakis
90'
Efthymios Koulouris
90'
Giorgos Masouras

Possession

50%Greece

Shots

27Greece

Pass accuracy

49%Greece

Statistics

GreeceBosnia
Overview
50%Possession50%
27Total Shots5
6Corners5
16Fouls14
Shots
27Total Shots5
8On Target3
12Off Target2
7Blocked0
17Inside Box4
10Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
509Total Passes498
431Accurate Passes434
85%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Greece vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Greece beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-1 in Euro Championship on October 15, 2019.

Goals: V. Pavlidis (30'), A. Gojak (35'), A. Kovačević (88' o.g.).

Greece controlled possession (50%) and registered 27 shots to 5.

The match was played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Athens.