Greece 2–3 Armenia: Result & Stats

Greece

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Armenia

K. Fortounis 87'

Zeca 54'

T. Barseghyan 74'

G. Ghazaryan 32'

A. Karapetyan 8'

6/11/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Greece58%

×Draw18%

Armenia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GreeceExpected goals in this matchArmenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.75

Greece

2.75

Armenia

1.75

Greece creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.17

creates per match

1.67

1.83

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Greece

1.17

Armenia

1.67

allows per match

Greece

1.83

Armenia

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece+0.00on par

Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Greece or draw

76%

Greece or Armenia

82%

Draw or Armenia

42%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+

38%

Armenia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals

93%

Greece 2+ goals

75%

Greece 3+ goals

51%

Armenia 1+ goals

83%

Armenia 2+ goals

52%

Armenia 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)

71%

Armenia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.17 + Armenia defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.75

Armenia attack 1.67 + Greece defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Greece scores more

58%

level

18%

Armenia scores more

24%

Greece at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Fortounis

Greece · M

9.2

Match Events

8'

A. Karapetyan↳ T. Barseghyan

17'

G. Kotsiras← C. Mavrias

19'

Dimitris Pelkas

29'

Karlen Mkrtchyan

32'

G. Ghazaryan↳ K. Hovhannisyan

54'

Zeca↳ K. Fortounis

55'

R. Hovsepyan← K. Mkrtchyan

68'

D. Kolovos← D. Pelkas

69'

Alexander Karapetian

70'

E. Babayan← A. Karapetyan

72'

Zeca

74'

T. Barseghyan

75'

E. Siopis← A. Samaris

76'

Sokratis

81'

Giorgos Masouras

83'

P. Avetisyan← G. Ghazaryan

87'

K. Fortounis↳ Zeca

90'

Edgar Babayan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GreeceArmenia

Overview

74%Possession26%

24Total Shots11

16Corners0

9Fouls19

Shots

24Total Shots11

11On Target6

7Off Target4

6Blocked1

11Inside Box8

13Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

649Total Passes230

571Accurate Passes158

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

9Fouls19

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides5