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Greece U19 W vs Hungary U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Greece U19 W
Greece U19 W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hungary U19 W
Hungary U19 W
E. Nanou 88'
E. Kiourexidou 22'
L. Borzak 66'
10/7/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Greece U19 W22%
×Draw24%
Hungary U19 W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greece U19 W
1.00
Hungary U19 W
1.74

Hungary U19 W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Greece U19 W
1.00
Hungary U19 W
2.14

allows per match

Greece U19 W
1.33
Hungary U19 W
1.00

finishing

Greece U19 W+0.00on par
Hungary U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece U19 W ↓

Hungary U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Greece U19 W or draw
45%
Greece U19 W or Hungary U19 W
76%
Draw or Hungary U19 W
78%

Winning margin

Greece U19 W wins by 2+
8%
Hungary U19 W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Greece U19 W 1+ goals
63%
Greece U19 W 2+ goals
26%
Greece U19 W 3+ goals
8%
Hungary U19 W 1+ goals
82%
Hungary U19 W 2+ goals
52%
Hungary U19 W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Greece U19 W (draw refunded)
28%
Hungary U19 W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece U19 W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Hungary U19 W away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece U19 W attack 1.00 + Hungary U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hungary U19 W attack 2.14 + Greece U19 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Greece U19 W scores more
22%
level
24%
Hungary U19 W scores more
55%

Hungary U19 W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hungary U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
E. Kiourexidou
66'
L. Borzak
88'
E. Nanou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Greece U19 W 2–1 Hungary U19 W

Greece U19 W beat Hungary U19 W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on October 7, 2025.

Goals: E. Kiourexidou (22'), L. Borzak (66'), E. Nanou (88').