Greece U19 3–3 Serbia U19: Result & Stats

Greece U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Serbia U19

C. Alexiou 78', 59'

D. Kaloskamis 72' (pen)

J. Šljivić 88', 48'

V. Serafimović 3'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Greece U1940%

×Draw25%

Serbia U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greece U19Expected goals in this matchSerbia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.43

Greece U19

1.52

Serbia U19

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

1.79

1.07

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Greece U19

1.47

Serbia U19

1.79

allows per match

Greece U19

1.07

Serbia U19

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece U19+0.00on par

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece U19 ↓

Serbia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Greece U19 or draw

64%

Greece U19 or Serbia U19

75%

Draw or Serbia U19

60%

Winning margin

Greece U19 wins by 2+

19%

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Greece U19 1+ goals

78%

Greece U19 2+ goals

45%

Greece U19 3+ goals

20%

Serbia U19 1+ goals

76%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

42%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Serbia U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece U19 attack 1.47 + Serbia U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Serbia U19 attack 1.79 + Greece U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Greece U19 scores more

40%

level

25%

Serbia U19 scores more

36%

Greece U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Greece U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

V. Serafimović

11'

J. Mijatovic

15'

C. Georgiadis

27'

M. Petrovic

31'

J. Sljivic

37'

A. Andrikopoulos

46'

C. Kostoulas← A. Andrikopoulos

48'

J. Šljivić

54'

S. Bukinac← M. Aleksić

57'

K. Gkoumas

59'

C. Alexiou

61'

A. Liatsikouras← C. Georgiadis

61'

V. Pasachidis← K. Goumas

63'

M. Luković← J. Mijatović

63'

M. Mladenović← M. Petrović

67'

J. Šimić← V. Mirosavić

68'

B. Mirčetić← U. Sremčević

71'

72'

D. KaloskamisPenalty

74'

78'

81'

82'

88'

A. Papakanellos← I. Gkitersos

88'

J. Šljivić

90+3'

L. Maroutsis← D. Kaloskamis

Greece

Serbia

12

Veličkovi

6

⚽

Serafimov

3

▼

Mirosavić

2

Đekić

15

Vasiljevi

10

⚽2

Šljivić

8

Stanković

14

▼

Petrović

11

▼

Mijatović

19

▼

Sremčević

18

▼

Aleksić

1

Karakasid

2

▼

Georgiadi

3

Deligiann

5

⚽2

Alexiou

4

Katris

10

▼

Goumas

11

⚽

▼

Kaloskami

14

Bakoulas

16

Kontouris

21

▼

Andrikopo

9

▼

Gkitersos

Manager: T. Theos

46'▲C. Kostoulas←▼A. Andrikopoulos

61'▲A. Liatsikouras←▼C. Georgiadis

61'▲V. Pasachidis←▼K. Goumas

88'▲A. Papakanellos←▼I. Gkitersos

90+3'▲L. Maroutsis←▼D. Kaloskamis

Greece U19 substitutes

19Kostoulas20Liatsikouras15Pasachidis7Papakanellos17Maroutsis18Deligiannidis6Filon8Kontonikos12Nikolakoulis

Manager: R. Krivokapić

54'▲S. Bukinac←▼M. Aleksić

63'▲M. Luković←▼J. Mijatović

63'▲M. Mladenović←▼M. Petrović

67'▲J. Šimić←▼V. Mirosavić

68'▲B. Mirčetić←▼U. Sremčević

Serbia U19 substitutes

13Bukinac9Luković7Mladenović17Šimić20Mirčetić16Petrović1Lijeskić