Greece U19 2–1 Russia U19: Result & Stats

Greece U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Russia U19

11/14/2017

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Greece U1936%

×Draw25%

Russia U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greece U19Expected goals in this matchRussia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.50

Greece U19

1.44

Russia U19

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Greece U19

2.20

Russia U19

1.00

allows per match

Greece U19

2.00

Russia U19

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece U19+0.00on par

Russia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece U19 ↓

Russia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Greece U19 or draw

61%

Greece U19 or Russia U19

75%

Draw or Russia U19

64%

Winning margin

Greece U19 wins by 2+

17%

Russia U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Greece U19 1+ goals

76%

Greece U19 2+ goals

42%

Greece U19 3+ goals

18%

Russia U19 1+ goals

78%

Russia U19 2+ goals

44%

Russia U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Russia U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Russia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece U19 attack 2.20 + Russia U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Russia U19 attack 1.00 + Greece U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Greece U19 scores more

36%

level

25%

Russia U19 scores more

39%

Russia U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Russia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff