Greece U19 0–3 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

Greece U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Montenegro U19

M. Tadić 90'

A. Bulatović 82' (pen)

F. Perović 60'

11/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Greece U1947%

×Draw26%

Montenegro U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greece U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.04

Greece U19

1.47

Montenegro U19

1.04

Greece U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Greece U19

1.47

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

Greece U19

1.07

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Greece U19 or draw

73%

Greece U19 or Montenegro U19

74%

Draw or Montenegro U19

53%

Winning margin

Greece U19 wins by 2+

23%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Greece U19 1+ goals

77%

Greece U19 2+ goals

43%

Greece U19 3+ goals

18%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

65%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

28%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece U19 attack 1.47 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Greece U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Greece U19 scores more

47%

level

26%

Montenegro U19 scores more

27%

Greece U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Greece U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

B. Tomasevic

46'

C. Kolimatsis← N. Alafakis

46'

K. Polykratis← L. Maroutsis

56'

D. Chatsidis← A. Mythou

56'

F. Perović← D. Ćetković

56'

M. Tadić← A. Kostić

60'

F. Perović

67'

A. Bulatovic

67'

M. Kalaitsidis← G. Koupenos

73'

T. Deligiannidis← I. Panagakos

73'

V. Vlahović← D. Vukanić

82'

G. Kosidis

82'

A. BulatovićPenalty

89'

S. Pnevmonidis

89'

V. Vlahovic

90+2'

M. Tadic

90+2'

A. Karadžić← L. Maraš

90'

M. Tadić

Greece

Montenegro

1

2

5

4

3

▼

Maraš

17

▼

Vukanić

11

Camaj

10

⚽

Bulatović

16

▼

Ćetković

8

Zeković

7

▼

Kostić

1

Georgakop

14

▼

Panagakos

3

▼

Alafakis

4

Bataoulas

5

Kosidis

2

▼

Koupenos

6

▼

10

8

18

9

▼

Mythou

Manager: V. Moras

46'▲C. Kolimatsis←▼N. Alafakis

46'▲K. Polykratis←▼L. Maroutsis

56'▲D. Chatsidis←▼A. Mythou

67'▲M. Kalaitsidis←▼G. Koupenos

73'▲T. Deligiannidis←▼I. Panagakos

Greece U19 substitutes

19Kolimatsis21Polykratis11Chatsidis17Kalaitsidis7Deligiannidis16Galiatsos20Santis12Beleris15Karkatsalis

Manager: G. Perišić

56'▲F. Perović←▼D. Ćetković

56'▲M. Tadić←▼A. Kostić

73'▲V. Vlahović←▼D. Vukanić

90+2'▲A. Karadžić←▼L. Maraš

Montenegro U19 substitutes

19Perović9Tadić18Vlahović6Karadžić12Božinović14Martinović22Šekularac21Zlatičanin20Mijović

Match Recap: Greece U19 vs Montenegro U19

Montenegro U19 beat Greece U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2024.

Goals: F. Perović (60'), A. Bulatović (82' pen), M. Tadić (90').

The match was played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Heraklion.

Greece U19 vs Montenegro U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Greece U19 vs Montenegro U19