Greece U19 0–1 Italy U19: Result & Stats

Greece U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Italy U19

F. Camarda 87' (pen)

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Greece U1929%

×Draw27%

Italy U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greece U19Expected goals in this matchItaly U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.42

Greece U19

1.08

Italy U19

1.42

Italy U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

1.47

creates per match

1.77

1.07

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Greece U19

1.47

Italy U19

1.77

allows per match

Greece U19

1.07

Italy U19

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece U19+0.00on par

Italy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece U19 ↓

Italy U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Greece U19 or draw

55%

Greece U19 or Italy U19

73%

Draw or Italy U19

71%

Winning margin

Greece U19 wins by 2+

11%

Italy U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Greece U19 1+ goals

66%

Greece U19 2+ goals

29%

Greece U19 3+ goals

10%

Italy U19 1+ goals

76%

Italy U19 2+ goals

41%

Italy U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Italy U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece U19 attack 1.47 + Italy U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.08

Italy U19 attack 1.77 + Greece U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Greece U19 scores more

29%

level

27%

Italy U19 scores more

45%

Italy U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

G. Koupenos

22'

E. Sala

46'

C. Kolimatsis

46'

A. Liatsikouras← M. Kalaitsidis

46'

S. Pnevmonidis← L. Maroutsis

56'

A. Bregou← A. Mythou

61'

G. De Pieri← J. Ekhator

65'

P. Santis← C. Kolimatsis

78'

T. Deligiannidis← G. Koupenos

79'

N. Fortini← E. Sala

87'

F. CamardaPenalty

89'

P. Santis

90+1'

F. Camarda

90+1'

M. Liberali← A. Natali

90+1'

M. Plaia← F. Camarda

Greece

Italy

1

16

4

19

13

▼

Natali

8

Mannini

6

Riccio

15

▼

Sala

7

Fini

9

⚽

▼

Camarda

18

▼

12

21

14

4

16

2

▼

Koupenos

6

▼

Maroutsis

17

▼

Kalaitsid

19

▼

Kolimatsi

9

▼

Mythou

11

Chatsidis

Manager: V. Moras

46'▲A. Liatsikouras←▼M. Kalaitsidis

46'▲S. Pnevmonidis←▼L. Maroutsis

56'▲A. Bregou←▼A. Mythou

65'▲P. Santis←▼C. Kolimatsis

78'▲T. Deligiannidis←▼G. Koupenos

Greece U19 substitutes

8Liatsikouras18Pnevmonidis10Bregou20Santis7Deligiannidis1Georgakopoulos3Alafakis15Karkatsalis

Manager: A. Bollini

61'▲G. De Pieri←▼J. Ekhator

79'▲N. Fortini←▼E. Sala

90+1'▲M. Liberali←▼A. Natali

90+1'▲M. Plaia←▼F. Camarda

Italy U19 substitutes

14Pieri2Fortini17Liberali5Plaia11Sia20Mendicino3Cocchi10Romano12Bellucci

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Greece U19 0–1 Italy U19

Italy U19 beat Greece U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2024.

Goals: F. Camarda (87' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Heraklion.

Greece U19 vs Italy U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Greece U19 0–1 Italy U19