Greece U19 1–1 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Greece U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Germany U19

G. Koutsias 62' (pen)

A. Kade 49'

11/16/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Papacharalabeio Ethniko Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Greece U1930%

×Draw24%

Germany U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greece U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.67

Greece U19

1.32

Germany U19

1.67

Germany U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.47

creates per match

2.27

1.07

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Greece U19

1.47

Germany U19

2.27

allows per match

Greece U19

1.07

Germany U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Greece U19 or draw

54%

Greece U19 or Germany U19

76%

Draw or Germany U19

70%

Winning margin

Greece U19 wins by 2+

13%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Greece U19 1+ goals

73%

Greece U19 2+ goals

38%

Greece U19 3+ goals

15%

Germany U19 1+ goals

81%

Germany U19 2+ goals

50%

Germany U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece U19 attack 1.47 + Germany U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Germany U19 attack 2.27 + Greece U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Greece U19 scores more

30%

level

24%

Germany U19 scores more

46%

Germany U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

C. Riedel← G. Gürpüz

49'

A. Kade

55'

A. Christópoulos← C. Kryparakos

55'

I. Karakoutis← T. Koutentakis

62'

G. KoutsiasPenalty

69'

T. Kastanaras← A. Ntoi

73'

J. Hettwer← A. Sieb

80'

M. Tzavidas← A. Kalogeropoulos

81'

M. Kostka← K. Kraft

85'

N. Jessen← E. Gedikli

Greece

Germany

1

Urbig

4

Arrey-Mbi

2

▼

6

13

8

10

▼

Gürpüz

9

▼

Sieb

3

Günther

19

▼

Gedikli

17

⚽

1

3

6

4

▼

Kalogerop

14

Gogouviti

8

▼

Koutentak

17

Kitsos

20

▼

Ntoi

5

Koulierak

7

▼

Kryparako

19

⚽

Koutsias

Manager: E. Neon

55'▲A. Christópoulos←▼C. Kryparakos

55'▲I. Karakoutis←▼T. Koutentakis

69'▲T. Kastanaras←▼A. Ntoi

80'▲M. Tzavidas←▼A. Kalogeropoulos

Greece U19 substitutes

11Christópoulos21Karakoutis10Kastanaras9Tzavidas2Pilios18Liatsos22Smpokos12Botis16Christou

Manager: H. Wolf

46'▲C. Riedel←▼G. Gürpüz

73'▲J. Hettwer←▼A. Sieb

81'▲M. Kostka←▼K. Kraft

85'▲N. Jessen←▼E. Gedikli

Germany U19 substitutes

15Riedel18Hettwer14Kostka20Jessen5Rosenfelder7Amyn11Bobzien12Ernst16Lütke-Frie