Greece U19 5–1 Albania U19: Result & Stats

Greece U19

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Albania U19

A. Athanasakopoulos 88'

G. Liavas 85'

G. Vrakas 72'

G. Vagiannidis 59'

P. Tzimas 13'

A. Dobra 81'

11/13/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 5B-Veld Racing Genk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Greece U1962%

×Draw19%

Albania U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greece U19Expected goals in this matchAlbania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.20

Greece U19

2.30

Albania U19

1.20

Greece U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

0.40

2.00

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Greece U19

2.20

Albania U19

0.40

allows per match

Greece U19

2.00

Albania U19

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece U19+0.00on par

Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece U19 ↓

Albania U19 →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Greece U19 or draw

81%

Greece U19 or Albania U19

81%

Draw or Albania U19

38%

Winning margin

Greece U19 wins by 2+

39%

Albania U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

Greece U19 1+ goals

90%

Greece U19 2+ goals

67%

Greece U19 3+ goals

40%

Albania U19 1+ goals

70%

Albania U19 2+ goals

34%

Albania U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Greece U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Greece U19 attack 2.20 + Albania U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.30

Albania U19 attack 0.40 + Greece U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Greece U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Albania U19 scores more

19%

Greece U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Greece U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

P. Tzimas

55'

V. Sourlis← S. Tzavidas

56'

56'

59'

66'

66'

72'

72'

81'

82'

A. Athanasakopoulos← G. Vrakas

82'

G. Liavas← S. Alexandropoulos

82'

B. Karrica← B. Morina

85'

G. Liavas

88'

A. Athanasakopoulos

Greece

Albania

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Vrakas

▼

Tzavidas

▼

Fakis

Manager: N. Kehagias

55'▲V. Sourlis←▼S. Tzavidas

72'▲C. Tzolis←▼I. Fakis

82'▲A. Athanasakopoulos←▼G. Vrakas

82'▲G. Liavas←▼S. Alexandropoulos

Greece U19 substitutes

20Sourlis14Tzolis11Athanasakopoulos2Liavas21Martinis12Talichmanidis19Tsakiris18Roukounakis16Michelis

Manager: N. Dede

56'▲A. Dobra←▼A. Rrapaj

56'▲M. Cuni←▼E. Bullari

66'▲B. Ibrahimi←▼E. Muçi

66'▲E. Mero←▼A. Ndrecka

82'▲B. Karrica←▼B. Morina

Albania U19 substitutes

17Dobra16Cuni10Ibrahimi3Mero7Karrica13Sadikaj15Shimaj12Dobjani19Bozhanaj

UEFA U19 Championship: Greece U19 5–1 Albania U19

Greece U19 beat Albania U19 5-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 13, 2019.

Goals: P. Tzimas (13'), G. Vagiannidis (59'), G. Vrakas (72'), A. Dobra (81'), G. Liavas (85'), A. Athanasakopoulos (88').

The match was played at B-Veld Racing Genk in Genk.

Greece U19 vs Albania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship: Greece U19 5–1 Albania U19