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Grebbestad vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Grebbestad
Grebbestad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
D. Bjornsson 77', 69'
A. Henriksson 75'
D. Nyarko 18'
10/13/2024Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 25Siljevi 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Grebbestad59%
×Draw21%
Säffle SK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grebbestad
2.14
Säffle SK
1.17

Grebbestad creates 83% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 26 away

creates per match

Grebbestad
2.05
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Grebbestad
1.52
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Grebbestad+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grebbestad ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Grebbestad or draw
80%
Grebbestad or Säffle SK
79%
Draw or Säffle SK
41%

Winning margin

Grebbestad wins by 2+
36%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grebbestad 1+ goals
88%
Grebbestad 2+ goals
63%
Grebbestad 3+ goals
36%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
69%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
33%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Grebbestad (draw refunded)
75%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grebbestad at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grebbestad attack 2.05 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.14

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Grebbestad defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Grebbestad scores more
59%
level
21%
Säffle SK scores more
20%

Grebbestad at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Grebbestad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
D. Nyarko
69'
D. Bjornsson
75'
A. Henriksson
77'
D. Bjornsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Grebbestad 4–0 Säffle SK

Grebbestad beat Säffle SK 4-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 13, 2024.

Goals: D. Nyarko (18'), D. Bjornsson (69', 77'), A. Henriksson (75').

The match was played at Siljevi 1 in Grebbestad.