Greater Tomorrow 1–1 Marimoo: Result & Stats

Greater Tomorrow

FT

1 – 1

Marimoo

6/30/2024

GFA League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Greater Tomorrow31%

×Draw31%

Marimoo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greater TomorrowExpected goals in this matchMarimoo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.07

Greater Tomorrow

0.94

Marimoo

1.07

Marimoo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 73 away

0.85

creates per match

0.89

1.26

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Greater Tomorrow

0.85

Marimoo

0.89

allows per match

Greater Tomorrow

1.26

Marimoo

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greater Tomorrow+0.00on par

Marimoo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greater Tomorrow ↓

Marimoo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Greater Tomorrow or draw

62%

Greater Tomorrow or Marimoo

69%

Draw or Marimoo

69%

Winning margin

Greater Tomorrow wins by 2+

11%

Marimoo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Greater Tomorrow 1+ goals

61%

Greater Tomorrow 2+ goals

24%

Greater Tomorrow 3+ goals

7%

Marimoo 1+ goals

66%

Marimoo 2+ goals

29%

Marimoo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Greater Tomorrow (draw refunded)

45%

Marimoo (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greater Tomorrow at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Marimoo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greater Tomorrow attack 0.85 + Marimoo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Marimoo attack 0.89 + Greater Tomorrow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Greater Tomorrow scores more

31%

level

31%

Marimoo scores more

38%

Marimoo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marimoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff