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Greater Tomorrow vs Hawks — GFA League 2020

Greater Tomorrow
Greater Tomorrow
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hawks
Hawks
1/5/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Greater Tomorrow33%
×Draw30%
Hawks36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greater Tomorrow
1.00
Hawks
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 73 away

creates per match

Greater Tomorrow
0.85
Hawks
0.86

allows per match

Greater Tomorrow
1.26
Hawks
1.15

finishing

Greater Tomorrow+0.00on par
Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greater Tomorrow ↓

Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Greater Tomorrow or draw
64%
Greater Tomorrow or Hawks
70%
Draw or Hawks
67%

Winning margin

Greater Tomorrow wins by 2+
12%
Hawks wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Greater Tomorrow 1+ goals
63%
Greater Tomorrow 2+ goals
26%
Greater Tomorrow 3+ goals
8%
Hawks 1+ goals
65%
Hawks 2+ goals
29%
Hawks 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Greater Tomorrow (draw refunded)
48%
Hawks (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greater Tomorrow at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Hawks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greater Tomorrow attack 0.85 + Hawks defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hawks attack 0.86 + Greater Tomorrow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Greater Tomorrow scores more
33%
level
30%
Hawks scores more
36%

Hawks at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greater Tomorrow vs Hawks

Greater Tomorrow and Hawks drew 0-0 in GFA League on January 5, 2025.