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Greater Tomorrow vs Falcons — GFA League 2020

Greater Tomorrow
Greater Tomorrow
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Falcons
Falcons
3/6/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Greater Tomorrow31%
×Draw32%
Falcons37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greater Tomorrow
0.86
Falcons
0.97

Falcons creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Greater Tomorrow
0.85
Falcons
0.67

allows per match

Greater Tomorrow
1.26
Falcons
0.87

finishing

Greater Tomorrow+0.00on par
Falcons+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greater Tomorrow ↓

Falcons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Greater Tomorrow or draw
63%
Greater Tomorrow or Falcons
68%
Draw or Falcons
69%

Winning margin

Greater Tomorrow wins by 2+
10%
Falcons wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Greater Tomorrow 1+ goals
58%
Greater Tomorrow 2+ goals
21%
Greater Tomorrow 3+ goals
6%
Falcons 1+ goals
62%
Falcons 2+ goals
25%
Falcons 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Greater Tomorrow (draw refunded)
46%
Falcons (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greater Tomorrow at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Falcons away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greater Tomorrow attack 0.85 + Falcons defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Falcons attack 0.67 + Greater Tomorrow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Greater Tomorrow scores more
31%
level
32%
Falcons scores more
37%

Falcons at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Greater Tomorrow 0–3 Falcons

Falcons beat Greater Tomorrow 3-0 in GFA League on March 6, 2026.