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Greater Tomorrow vs Dutch Lions — GFA League 2020

Greater Tomorrow
Greater Tomorrow
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
12/14/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Greater Tomorrow36%
×Draw31%
Dutch Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greater Tomorrow
1.04
Dutch Lions
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

creates per match

Greater Tomorrow
0.85
Dutch Lions
0.70

allows per match

Greater Tomorrow
1.26
Dutch Lions
1.23

finishing

Greater Tomorrow+0.00on par
Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greater Tomorrow ↓

Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Greater Tomorrow or draw
67%
Greater Tomorrow or Dutch Lions
69%
Draw or Dutch Lions
64%

Winning margin

Greater Tomorrow wins by 2+
14%
Dutch Lions wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Greater Tomorrow 1+ goals
65%
Greater Tomorrow 2+ goals
28%
Greater Tomorrow 3+ goals
9%
Dutch Lions 1+ goals
62%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
26%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Greater Tomorrow (draw refunded)
52%
Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greater Tomorrow at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greater Tomorrow attack 0.85 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Greater Tomorrow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Greater Tomorrow scores more
36%
level
31%
Dutch Lions scores more
33%

Greater Tomorrow at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Greater Tomorrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greater Tomorrow vs Dutch Lions

Dutch Lions beat Greater Tomorrow 1-0 in GFA League on December 14, 2024.