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Great Olympics vs Tamale City — Premier League 2019

Great Olympics
Great Olympics
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tamale City
Tamale City
C. Nettey 38'
S. Eduku 90+6'
4/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Great Olympics54%
×Draw30%
Tamale City16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Olympics
1.25
Tamale City
0.53

Great Olympics creates 136% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Great Olympics
1.26
Tamale City
0.41

allows per match

Great Olympics
0.64
Tamale City
1.24

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw
84%
Great Olympics or Tamale City
70%
Draw or Tamale City
46%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+
25%
Tamale City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals
71%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
36%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
13%
Tamale City 1+ goals
41%
Tamale City 2+ goals
10%
Tamale City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)
77%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.64 · 77 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.26 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Great Olympics defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Great Olympics scores more
54%
level
30%
Tamale City scores more
16%

Great Olympics at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
C. Nettey
90+6'
S. Eduku

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Great Olympics vs Tamale City

Great Olympics and Tamale City drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 23, 2023.

Goals: C. Nettey (38'), S. Eduku (90+6').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.