Great Olympics 1–1 Port City: Result & Stats

Great Olympics

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Port City

10/19/2025

Division One League · Round 4WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Great Olympics27%

×Draw28%

Port City45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Great OlympicsExpected goals in this matchPort City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.33

Great Olympics

0.96

Port City

1.33

Port City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Great Olympics

1.40

Port City

1.33

allows per match

Great Olympics

1.33

Port City

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par

Port City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Port City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw

55%

Great Olympics or Port City

72%

Draw or Port City

73%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+

10%

Port City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals

62%

Great Olympics 2+ goals

25%

Great Olympics 3+ goals

7%

Port City 1+ goals

74%

Port City 2+ goals

38%

Port City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)

37%

Port City (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Port City away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.40 + Port City defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.96

Port City attack 1.33 + Great Olympics defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Great Olympics scores more

27%

level

28%

Port City scores more

45%

Port City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff