Great Olympics vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 77+ matches
Great Olympics44%
Hearts of Oak23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Great Olympics creates 56% more chances
Season form · 77 home / 108 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under75
- Over25
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No68
- Yes32
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Great Olympics ↓
Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Great Olympics at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.64 · 77 matches
Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Great Olympics attack 1.26 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06
Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Great Olympics defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Great Olympics at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Medeama
Bibiani Gold StarsHearts of Oak
Dreams
Aduana Stars
Samartex
Karela
Vision
Berekum Chelsea
Asante Kotoko
Swedru All Blacks
Young Apostles
Nations
Bechem United
Basake Holy Stars
Heart of Lions
Hohoe United
Eleven WondersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Great Olympics host Hearts of Oak on Sunday, 12 June 2022 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Premier League: Great Olympics 3–0 Hearts of Oak
Great Olympics beat Hearts of Oak 3-0 in Premier League on June 12, 2022.
Goals: A. Acheapong (19'), Y. Razak (32', 82').
The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.