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Great Olympics vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Great Olympics
Great Olympics
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
D. Adjetey 90'
2/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Great Olympics59%
×Draw26%
Elmina Sharks15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Olympics
1.51
Elmina Sharks
0.61

Great Olympics creates 148% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 41 away

creates per match

Great Olympics
1.26
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Great Olympics
0.64
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw
85%
Great Olympics or Elmina Sharks
74%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
41%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+
31%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals
78%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
44%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
19%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
46%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
13%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)
80%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.64 · 77 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.26 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.51

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Great Olympics defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Great Olympics scores more
59%
level
26%
Elmina Sharks scores more
15%

Great Olympics at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
45+3'
90'
D. Adjetey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Great Olympics vs Elmina Sharks

Great Olympics beat Elmina Sharks 1-0 in Premier League on February 13, 2022.

Goals: D. Adjetey (90').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.