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Great Olympics vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

Great Olympics
Great Olympics
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
M. Osei 48'
10/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Great Olympics54%
×Draw28%
Bibiani Gold Stars18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Olympics
1.39
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.67

Great Olympics creates 107% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 84 away

creates per match

Great Olympics
1.28
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

Great Olympics
0.63
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw
82%
Great Olympics or Bibiani Gold Stars
72%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
46%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+
27%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals
75%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
40%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
16%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
49%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
15%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)
75%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.63 · 76 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.28 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Great Olympics defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Great Olympics scores more
54%
level
28%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
18%

Great Olympics at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
E. Odai
35'
C. Nettey
48'
M. Osei
71'
E. Appau← E. Appau
71'
E. Bosomtwi← E. Bosomtwi
79'
M. Wayo← M. Wayo
90+1'
A. Aso
90+3'
M. Yeboah
90+4'
E. Appau

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Great Olympics 1–0 Bibiani Gold Stars

Great Olympics beat Bibiani Gold Stars 1-0 in Premier League on October 1, 2023.

Goals: M. Osei (48').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.