Great Olympics 4–2 Aduana Stars: Result & Stats

Great Olympics

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Aduana Stars

3/24/2024

Premier League · Round 23Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Great Olympics50%

×Draw29%

Aduana Stars20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Great OlympicsExpected goals in this matchAduana Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.69

Great Olympics

1.27

Aduana Stars

0.69

Great Olympics creates 84% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

1.28

creates per match

0.75

0.63

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Great Olympics

1.28

Aduana Stars

0.75

allows per match

Great Olympics

0.63

Aduana Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Aduana Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw

80%

Great Olympics or Aduana Stars

71%

Draw or Aduana Stars

50%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+

23%

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals

72%

Great Olympics 2+ goals

36%

Great Olympics 3+ goals

14%

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

50%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

15%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)

71%

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.63 · 76 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.28 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Great Olympics defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Great Olympics scores more

50%

level

29%

Aduana Stars scores more

20%

Great Olympics at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff