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Great Ambitions vs True Democracy — Division One League 2025

Great Ambitions
Great Ambitions
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
True Democracy
True Democracy
12/6/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Great Ambitions20%
×Draw25%
True Democracy55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Ambitions
0.83
True Democracy
1.57

True Democracy creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Great Ambitions
0.47
True Democracy
0.93

allows per match

Great Ambitions
2.20
True Democracy
1.20

finishing

Great Ambitions+0.00on par
True Democracy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Ambitions ↓

True Democracy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Great Ambitions or draw
45%
Great Ambitions or True Democracy
75%
Draw or True Democracy
80%

Winning margin

Great Ambitions wins by 2+
6%
True Democracy wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Great Ambitions 1+ goals
56%
Great Ambitions 2+ goals
20%
Great Ambitions 3+ goals
5%
True Democracy 1+ goals
79%
True Democracy 2+ goals
46%
True Democracy 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Great Ambitions (draw refunded)
27%
True Democracy (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Ambitions at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

True Democracy away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Ambitions attack 0.47 + True Democracy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.83

True Democracy attack 0.93 + Great Ambitions defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Great Ambitions scores more
20%
level
25%
True Democracy scores more
55%

True Democracy at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "True Democracy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Great Ambitions vs True Democracy

True Democracy beat Great Ambitions 2-1 in Division One League on December 6, 2025.