Great Ambitions 1–1 Na God: Result & Stats

Great Ambitions

FT

1 – 1

Na God

2/21/2026

Division One League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Great Ambitions29%

×Draw25%

Na God46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Great AmbitionsExpected goals in this matchNa God

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.57

Great Ambitions

1.20

Na God

1.57

Na God creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.47

creates per match

0.93

2.20

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Great Ambitions

0.47

Na God

0.93

allows per match

Great Ambitions

2.20

Na God

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Great Ambitions+0.00on par

Na God+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Ambitions ↓

Na God →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Great Ambitions or draw

54%

Great Ambitions or Na God

75%

Draw or Na God

71%

Winning margin

Great Ambitions wins by 2+

12%

Na God wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Great Ambitions 1+ goals

70%

Great Ambitions 2+ goals

34%

Great Ambitions 3+ goals

12%

Na God 1+ goals

79%

Na God 2+ goals

46%

Na God 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Great Ambitions (draw refunded)

39%

Na God (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Ambitions at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Na God away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Ambitions attack 0.47 + Na God defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Na God attack 0.93 + Great Ambitions defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Great Ambitions scores more

29%

level

25%

Na God scores more

46%

Na God at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Na God will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff