Great Ambitions vs Home Stars — Division One League 2025
Division One League · Round 1Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Great Ambitions18%
Home Stars55%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Home Stars creates 106% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Great Ambitions ↓
Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Great Ambitions at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches
Home Stars away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Great Ambitions attack 0.47 + Home Stars defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.70
Home Stars attack 0.67 + Great Ambitions defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Home Stars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Home Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Port City
Ashanti Gold
Debibi United
Koforidua
Tamale City
Attram de Visser
Ebusua Dwarfs
Nsuopun Fidelity
Real Tamale
Sefwi All Stars
PAC Academy
Rospak
KAC Soccer
WAFA
VC Warriors
Dormaa
Mighty Royals
Future Stars
True Democracy
Wa PowerHome Stars
Techiman Liberty
Great Olympics
King Faisal
Skyy
Hakla SC
Nania
Ebony FC
Inter Allies
Golden Kicks
Soccer Intellectuals
Okwawu
Accra Lions
New Edubiase
Elmina Sharks
Golden Warriors
Sankara Nationals
Police National
Yapei
Bolga AllStars
Na God
Northern City
Eleven Wise
Berekum Arsenal
TF Exponential
UCC Youngsters
Legon CitiesGreat AmbitionsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Great Ambitions host Home Stars on Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Division One League 2025/2026 season.
Division One League: Great Ambitions 0–1 Home Stars
Home Stars beat Great Ambitions 1-0 in Division One League on September 27, 2025.