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Great Ambitions vs Hakla SC — Division One League 2025

Great Ambitions
Great Ambitions
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hakla SC
Hakla SC
10/19/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Great Ambitions21%
×Draw24%
Hakla SC55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Ambitions
0.93
Hakla SC
1.67

Hakla SC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Great Ambitions
0.47
Hakla SC
1.13

allows per match

Great Ambitions
2.20
Hakla SC
1.40

finishing

Great Ambitions+0.00on par
Hakla SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Ambitions ↓

Hakla SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Great Ambitions or draw
45%
Great Ambitions or Hakla SC
76%
Draw or Hakla SC
79%

Winning margin

Great Ambitions wins by 2+
7%
Hakla SC wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Great Ambitions 1+ goals
61%
Great Ambitions 2+ goals
24%
Great Ambitions 3+ goals
7%
Hakla SC 1+ goals
81%
Hakla SC 2+ goals
50%
Hakla SC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Great Ambitions (draw refunded)
28%
Hakla SC (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Ambitions at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Hakla SC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Ambitions attack 0.47 + Hakla SC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.93

Hakla SC attack 1.13 + Great Ambitions defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Great Ambitions scores more
21%
level
24%
Hakla SC scores more
55%

Hakla SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hakla SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Great Ambitions 2–3 Hakla SC

Hakla SC beat Great Ambitions 3-2 in Division One League on October 19, 2025.