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Great Ambitions vs Accra Lions — Division One League 2025

Great Ambitions
Great Ambitions
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
4/11/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Great Ambitions16%
×Draw24%
Accra Lions60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Ambitions
0.73
Accra Lions
1.67

Accra Lions creates 129% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Great Ambitions
0.47
Accra Lions
1.13

allows per match

Great Ambitions
2.20
Accra Lions
1.00

finishing

Great Ambitions+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Ambitions ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Great Ambitions or draw
40%
Great Ambitions or Accra Lions
76%
Draw or Accra Lions
84%

Winning margin

Great Ambitions wins by 2+
5%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Great Ambitions 1+ goals
52%
Great Ambitions 2+ goals
17%
Great Ambitions 3+ goals
4%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
81%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
50%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Great Ambitions (draw refunded)
21%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Ambitions at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Ambitions attack 0.47 + Accra Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + Great Ambitions defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Great Ambitions scores more
16%
level
24%
Accra Lions scores more
60%

Accra Lions at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Great Ambitions vs Accra Lions

Accra Lions beat Great Ambitions 5-0 in Division One League on April 11, 2026.