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Grbalj vs Rudar Velenje — First League 2019

Grbalj
Grbalj
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
10/5/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Donja Sutvara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Grbalj40%
×Draw28%
Rudar Velenje32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grbalj
1.23
Rudar Velenje
1.07

Grbalj creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 90 away

creates per match

Grbalj
0.71
Rudar Velenje
0.86

allows per match

Grbalj
1.29
Rudar Velenje
1.76

finishing

Grbalj+0.00on par
Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grbalj ↓

Rudar Velenje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Grbalj or draw
68%
Grbalj or Rudar Velenje
72%
Draw or Rudar Velenje
60%

Winning margin

Grbalj wins by 2+
17%
Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Grbalj 1+ goals
71%
Grbalj 2+ goals
35%
Grbalj 3+ goals
13%
Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
66%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
29%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grbalj (draw refunded)
55%
Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grbalj at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grbalj attack 0.71 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + Grbalj defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grbalj scores more
40%
level
28%
Rudar Velenje scores more
32%

Grbalj at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grbalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grbalj vs Rudar Velenje

Grbalj and Rudar Velenje drew 2-2 in First League on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Donja Sutvara in Radanovići.