Grbalj 1–0 Lovćen: Result & Stats | Second League

Grbalj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lovćen

3/24/2024

Second League · Round 25Stadion Donja Sutvara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Grbalj39%

×Draw27%

Lovćen34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrbaljExpected goals in this matchLovćen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.19

Grbalj

1.31

Lovćen

1.19

Grbalj creates 10% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 67 away

1.26

creates per match

1.15

1.24

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Grbalj

1.26

Lovćen

1.15

allows per match

Grbalj

1.24

Lovćen

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grbalj+0.00on par

Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grbalj ↓

Lovćen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Grbalj or draw

66%

Grbalj or Lovćen

73%

Draw or Lovćen

61%

Winning margin

Grbalj wins by 2+

18%

Lovćen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Grbalj 1+ goals

73%

Grbalj 2+ goals

38%

Grbalj 3+ goals

14%

Lovćen 1+ goals

70%

Lovćen 2+ goals

33%

Lovćen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Grbalj (draw refunded)

54%

Lovćen (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grbalj at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.24 · 105 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grbalj attack 1.26 + Lovćen defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lovćen attack 1.15 + Grbalj defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grbalj scores more

39%

level

27%

Lovćen scores more

34%

Grbalj at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grbalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff