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Grbalj vs Internacional Podgorica — Second League 2019

Grbalj
Grbalj
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Internacional Podgorica
Internacional Podgorica
4/28/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 32Stadion Donja Sutvara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Grbalj52%
×Draw24%
Internacional Podgorica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grbalj
1.67
Internacional Podgorica
1.05

Grbalj creates 59% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 36 away

creates per match

Grbalj
1.26
Internacional Podgorica
0.86

allows per match

Grbalj
1.24
Internacional Podgorica
2.08

finishing

Grbalj+0.00on par
Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grbalj ↓

Internacional Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Grbalj or draw
76%
Grbalj or Internacional Podgorica
76%
Draw or Internacional Podgorica
48%

Winning margin

Grbalj wins by 2+
28%
Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grbalj 1+ goals
81%
Grbalj 2+ goals
50%
Grbalj 3+ goals
23%
Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals
65%
Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals
28%
Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grbalj (draw refunded)
68%
Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grbalj at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.24 · 105 matches

Internacional Podgorica away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grbalj attack 1.26 + Internacional Podgorica defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Internacional Podgorica attack 0.86 + Grbalj defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grbalj scores more
52%
level
24%
Internacional Podgorica scores more
24%

Grbalj at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grbalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Grbalj 1–2 Internacional Podgorica

Internacional Podgorica beat Grbalj 2-1 in Second League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Donja Sutvara in Radanovići.