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Grbalj vs Cetinje — Second League 2019

Grbalj
Grbalj
FT
1 – 0
Cetinje
Cetinje
10/23/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 12Stadion Donja Sutvara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Grbalj60%
×Draw22%
Cetinje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grbalj
1.85
Cetinje
0.90

Grbalj creates 106% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 18 away

creates per match

Grbalj
1.26
Cetinje
0.56

allows per match

Grbalj
1.24
Cetinje
2.44

finishing

Grbalj+0.00on par
Cetinje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grbalj ↓

Cetinje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Grbalj or draw
82%
Grbalj or Cetinje
78%
Draw or Cetinje
40%

Winning margin

Grbalj wins by 2+
35%
Cetinje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Grbalj 1+ goals
84%
Grbalj 2+ goals
55%
Grbalj 3+ goals
28%
Cetinje 1+ goals
59%
Cetinje 2+ goals
23%
Cetinje 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grbalj (draw refunded)
77%
Cetinje (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grbalj at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.24 · 105 matches

Cetinje away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grbalj attack 1.26 + Cetinje defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.85

Cetinje attack 0.56 + Grbalj defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Grbalj scores more
60%
level
22%
Cetinje scores more
18%

Grbalj at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Grbalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grbalj vs Cetinje

Grbalj beat Cetinje 1-0 in Second League on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Donja Sutvara in Radanovići.