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Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

Grazer AK
Grazer AK
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 0
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
11/30/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 15Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Grazer AK35%
×Draw25%
Wolfsberger AC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grazer AK
1.38
Wolfsberger AC
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 130 away

creates per match

Grazer AK
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

Grazer AK
1.38
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

Grazer AK+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grazer AK ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Grazer AK or draw
60%
Grazer AK or Wolfsberger AC
75%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
65%

Winning margin

Grazer AK wins by 2+
16%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Grazer AK 1+ goals
75%
Grazer AK 2+ goals
40%
Grazer AK 3+ goals
16%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
77%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
43%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Grazer AK (draw refunded)
47%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grazer AK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grazer AK attack 1.31 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + Grazer AK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grazer AK scores more
35%
level
25%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
40%

Wolfsberger AC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Grazer AK 3–4 Wolfsberger AC

Wolfsberger AC beat Grazer AK 4-3 in Bundesliga on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Merkur Arena in Graz.