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Grazer AK vs Stadl-Paura — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Grazer AK
Grazer AK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
6/7/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 30Sportzentrum Graz-Weinzödl (Graz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grazer AK81%
×Draw12%
Stadl-Paura7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grazer AK
3.19
Stadl-Paura
0.89

Grazer AK creates 258% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Grazer AK
2.73
Stadl-Paura
0.91

allows per match

Grazer AK
0.87
Stadl-Paura
3.64

finishing

Grazer AK+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grazer AK ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Grazer AK or draw
93%
Grazer AK or Stadl-Paura
88%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
19%

Winning margin

Grazer AK wins by 2+
63%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Grazer AK 1+ goals
96%
Grazer AK 2+ goals
82%
Grazer AK 3+ goals
60%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
59%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
22%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grazer AK (draw refunded)
92%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grazer AK at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grazer AK attack 2.73 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 3.19

Stadl-Paura attack 0.91 + Grazer AK defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Grazer AK scores more
81%
level
12%
Stadl-Paura scores more
7%

Grazer AK at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grazer AK vs Stadl-Paura

Grazer AK and Stadl-Paura drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on June 7, 2019.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Graz-Weinzödl (Graz).