Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018
68% of Red Bull Salzburg’s matches go over 2.5 goals
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Grazer AK25%Red Bull Salzburg51%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Red Bull Salzburg creates 52% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 128 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Grazer AK ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Grazer AK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches
Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Grazer AK attack 1.31 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16
Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Grazer AK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Red Bull Salzburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Red Bull Salzburg fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.9 expected)
- 20% of Red Bull Salzburg’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Grazer AK host Red Bull Salzburg on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg — Match Preview
Grazer AK face Red Bull Salzburg on October 10, 2026 in this Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Grazer AK host Red Bull Salzburg at Merkur-Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.