Grasshoppers 4–3 FC Vaduz: Result & Stats

Grasshoppers

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

FC Vaduz

G. Morandi 53'

R. Kalem 49'

M. Shabani 36'

T. Ndenge 18'

T. Cicek 27'

F. Cavegn 19'

F. Fehr 17'

6/24/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Grasshoppers56%

×Draw18%

FC Vaduz25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchFC Vaduz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.77

Grasshoppers

2.67

FC Vaduz

1.77

Grasshoppers creates 51% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

3.25

creates per match

1.80

1.75

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Grasshoppers

3.25

FC Vaduz

1.80

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.75

FC Vaduz

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.00on par

FC Vaduz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Vaduz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

75%

Grasshoppers or FC Vaduz

82%

Draw or FC Vaduz

44%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

37%

FC Vaduz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

93%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

74%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

49%

FC Vaduz 1+ goals

83%

FC Vaduz 2+ goals

53%

FC Vaduz 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

69%

FC Vaduz (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

FC Vaduz away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 3.25 + FC Vaduz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.67

FC Vaduz attack 1.80 + Grasshoppers defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

56%

level

18%

FC Vaduz scores more

25%

Grasshoppers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

18'

19'

27'

36'

49'

53'

Statistics

GrasshoppersFC

Overview

4Corners3