Grasshoppers 1–3 FC Thun: Result & Stats

Grasshoppers

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

FC Thun

1/18/2026

Super League · Round 20Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Grasshoppers32%

×Draw24%

FC Thun45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchFC Thun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.70

Grasshoppers

1.39

FC Thun

1.70

FC Thun creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

1.56

creates per match

1.84

1.56

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Grasshoppers

1.56

FC Thun

1.84

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.56

FC Thun

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.00on par

FC Thun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Thun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

55%

Grasshoppers or FC Thun

76%

Draw or FC Thun

68%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

14%

FC Thun wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

75%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

40%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

16%

FC Thun 1+ goals

82%

FC Thun 2+ goals

51%

FC Thun 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

41%

FC Thun (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.56 + FC Thun defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Thun attack 1.84 + Grasshoppers defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

32%

level

24%

FC Thun scores more

45%

FC Thun at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff