Grasshoppers 1–0 FC Lugano: Result & Stats

Grasshoppers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Lugano

D. Kelvin 12' (OG)

3/1/2026

Super League · Round 27Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Grasshoppers38%

×Draw25%

FC Lugano36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchFC Lugano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.36

Grasshoppers

1.41

FC Lugano

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.58

creates per match

1.18

1.54

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Grasshoppers

1.58

FC Lugano

1.18

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.54

FC Lugano

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.00on par

FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Lugano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

64%

Grasshoppers or FC Lugano

75%

Draw or FC Lugano

62%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

18%

FC Lugano wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

76%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

41%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

17%

FC Lugano 1+ goals

74%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

39%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

52%

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.58 + FC Lugano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Lugano attack 1.18 + Grasshoppers defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

38%

level

25%

FC Lugano scores more

36%

Grasshoppers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Saipi

FC Lugano · G

8.9

Match Events

12'

D. KelvinOwn goal

19'

Abdoulaye Diaby

30'

H. Imourane← J. Asp

46'

A. Abrashi← L. Plange

46'

E. Alioski← Joao Carbone

46'

L. Mai← Y. Cimignani

46'

G. Koutsias← D. Kelvin

67'

Lars Lukas Mai

70'

Lee Young-Jun← M. Frey

70'

M. Bottani← A. Grgic

80'

E. Pihlstrom← M. Zanotti

89'

Simone Stroscio

89'

S. Diarrassouba← D. Abels

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrasshoppersFC

Overview

28%Possession72%

12Total Shots16

1.21Expected Goals (xG)0.78

4Corners9

13Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target4

3Off Target6

4Blocked6

5Inside Box6

7Outside Box10

Passing

28%Possession72%

250Total Passes635

170Accurate Passes556

68%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

0.56Goals Prevented0.56

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4