Grasshoppers 0–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Grasshoppers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Basel 1893

F. Frei 90+4'

5/18/2024

Super League · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Grasshoppers39%

×Draw24%

FC Basel 189337%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.50

Grasshoppers

1.56

FC Basel 1893

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

1.57

1.42

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Grasshoppers

1.46

FC Basel 1893

1.57

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.42

FC Basel 1893

1.66

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.21scores more

FC Basel 1893+0.07on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

63%

Grasshoppers or FC Basel 1893

76%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

61%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

19%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

79%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

46%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

21%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

78%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

44%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

52%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.42 · 30 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.46 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.57 + Grasshoppers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

39%

level

24%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

37%

Grasshoppers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

F. Frei

FC Basel 1893 · M

8.3

Match Events

39'

Giotto Morandi

42'

Kristers Tobers

57'

Renato Veiga← D. Kacuri

57'

Sergio López← K. Rüegg

65'

L. Avdullahu← Renato Veiga

65'

M. Lang← Arnau Comas

72'

F. de Carvalho← Asumah Abubakar

72'

A. Abrashi← T. Ndenge

73'

Dorian Babunski

73'

D. Babunski← M. Paskotši

79'

P. Schürpf← F. Momoh

79'

O. Batista Meier← G. Morandi

82'

A. Hunziker← B. Kololli

90+4'

F. Frei↳ A. Ajeti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrasshoppersFC

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots13

0.72Expected Goals (xG)1.36

6Corners4

9Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

1On Target4

8Off Target6

1Blocked3

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

377Total Passes477

300Accurate Passes390

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

4Offsides1